But this method lacks one fundamental fact: the Bitcoin offering is relatively stable and will remain so due to its underlying code.
The blockchain limits the maximum number of currencies at 21 million.
The self-adjusting difficulty function means that cryptocurrency miners have little effect on mining speed, unlike gold or other miners.
So what drives Bitcoin prices in the short term?
Factor 01: Demand for the currency
Although the top three cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Ripple (XRP), operate with radically different technologies, the correlation between them has jumped since 2017.
Today, Bitcoin is associated with Ethereum and Ripple, and they almost move with some more often except for Ripple, which deviated from this rule recently.
Bitcoin’s correlations with other digital agents have increased over time.
Investors are starting to view cryptocurrencies as a single asset class.
Technology has undoubtedly played a hand in that.
Gone are the days of creating individual wallets for each coin. Coinbase and Robinhood, the two major cryptocurrency platforms in the US, offer side-by-side comparisons for several fiat currencies.
Factor 2: Risk Appetite
If Bitcoin is compared to gold? Do investors see bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and as a safe asset class?
Bitcoin revenue is only tied at 9% to gold, a positive but relatively insignificant amount.
Instead, Bitcoin is classified as a risky asset.
Therefore, and contrary to popular belief, Bitcoin does not function as an asset and safe haven.
Instead, the currency does the opposite, as the currency tends to appreciate confident emerging markets and land in bear markets.
Factor 03: Technical factors
Technical analysis requires less efficient markets.
A study by the US Federal Reserve found that technical analysis in the foreign exchange market worked during the 1970s and 1980s but declined in the 1990s as the flow of information improved.
Fortunately for cryptocurrency investors, bitcoin today still resembles the ineffective systems of the 1970s.
Bitcoin is traded on several decentralized platforms, making it difficult to determine its exact price.
Investors still routinely accuse market makers of price gouging.
All of these factors make trend tracking an essential tool in monitoring Bitcoin’s self-reinforcing predictions.
This means that technical strategies have succeeded in analyzing Bitcoin.
The investor using these indicators would have achieved 15% higher returns from buying and holding while investing only 40% of the time.
A more aggressive approach could have pushed the returns higher.